14.55 Lingfield TEMPURAN
I have narrowed this race down to two horses the one above and SAINT HONORE and have plumped for TEMPURAN.
The reason I have gone for this horse is that he has won over CD when he led and at one point was 12 lengths clear and then was eased down inside the final furlong. If he can repeat that run he will take all the beating here.
I hope that the bounce him out again and he can lead all the way again
He is currently best priced at 13/2
Wednesday, February 22, 2017
Saturday, February 18, 2017
19th February 2017
Well yesterdays runner lost all chance at the start and maybe I should have taken into the account the jockey, but that's is racing and I am sure we will have our moments of good fortune as well.
15.50 Ffos Las BOB FORD (best odds 11/2)
Rebecca Curtis
The trainer does well in Handicap and Handicap Novice Chase races at this track when the horses are ridden by Mr SP Bowen, JM Moore, BJ Geraghty, Tom Scudamore, DN Russell or 3 other jockeys.
12 winners from 17 runners (+45.53 points)
2014 - 2 from 2
2015 - 6 from 6
2016 - 3 from 7 (stable was out of sorts this year but still managed winners at this track)
The stable sent out no runners in the last 14 days until yesterday when they had the following figures: 1225P so it would seem that there is nothing amiss.
Horse Profile (Chase runs)
Not exactly the most consistent of horses and I hope today is a going day.
The horse has only ever won at Chepstow: 11PF and here: 2P11
All wins have come in fields of 1 to 11 runners
3m: 1P
Class 3 and 4: 2P121P1
All wins have come on soft or heavy ground
PACE (in this type of race at this track those that lead or race prominently are favoured)
Pearl Swan,Wadorf Salad and Bob Ford can force the pace but Bob Ford is equally happy to track leaders or race prominently so that is not a concern.
JOCKEY
1 year course form - 7 wins, 5 places from 26 rides (rides this track well)
TRAINER
1 year course form - 10 wins, 8 places from 42 runners
The horse is the top 3 rated on HRB's ratings
The horse is in the top 3 on Geegeez speed ratings
15.50 Ffos Las BOB FORD (best odds 11/2)
Rebecca Curtis
The trainer does well in Handicap and Handicap Novice Chase races at this track when the horses are ridden by Mr SP Bowen, JM Moore, BJ Geraghty, Tom Scudamore, DN Russell or 3 other jockeys.
12 winners from 17 runners (+45.53 points)
2014 - 2 from 2
2015 - 6 from 6
2016 - 3 from 7 (stable was out of sorts this year but still managed winners at this track)
The stable sent out no runners in the last 14 days until yesterday when they had the following figures: 1225P so it would seem that there is nothing amiss.
Horse Profile (Chase runs)
Not exactly the most consistent of horses and I hope today is a going day.
The horse has only ever won at Chepstow: 11PF and here: 2P11
All wins have come in fields of 1 to 11 runners
3m: 1P
Class 3 and 4: 2P121P1
All wins have come on soft or heavy ground
PACE (in this type of race at this track those that lead or race prominently are favoured)
Pearl Swan,Wadorf Salad and Bob Ford can force the pace but Bob Ford is equally happy to track leaders or race prominently so that is not a concern.
JOCKEY
1 year course form - 7 wins, 5 places from 26 rides (rides this track well)
TRAINER
1 year course form - 10 wins, 8 places from 42 runners
The horse is the top 3 rated on HRB's ratings
The horse is in the top 3 on Geegeez speed ratings
COGRY made too many mistakes again especially on the first circuit and only jumped well when booted into the fence - he is clearly talented but his jumping really needs to improve if he has any chance of winning again.
Todays Selection is based on Trainer form
19.45 Kempton BARGAIN BUY
WJ Haggas - last 30 days 4 winners from 6 runners, last 14 days 2 winners from 2 runners.
Trainer Track form - last year 10 winners from 28 selections (5 others have placed)
Horses rested for 60 days+ have a 20% SR
Profile
Does seem better at thi distance : 7f: 121, 1m: 143
The horse is clearly better rested between races: 16 to 30 days: 243, 31 days+: 111
10k races or less: 41112
Polytrack: 1213
PACE - there is plenty of pace in this race which should suit this hold up horse.
DRAW - not ideal in the outside berth but should be able to drop in from this draw.
Todays Selection is based on Trainer form
19.45 Kempton BARGAIN BUY
WJ Haggas - last 30 days 4 winners from 6 runners, last 14 days 2 winners from 2 runners.
Trainer Track form - last year 10 winners from 28 selections (5 others have placed)
Horses rested for 60 days+ have a 20% SR
Profile
Does seem better at thi distance : 7f: 121, 1m: 143
The horse is clearly better rested between races: 16 to 30 days: 243, 31 days+: 111
10k races or less: 41112
Polytrack: 1213
PACE - there is plenty of pace in this race which should suit this hold up horse.
DRAW - not ideal in the outside berth but should be able to drop in from this draw.
Friday, February 17, 2017
17th February 2017
Good Morning
We have no bets at all this week hence the lack of posts - we have also be doing a review of our methods and although we have both been fans of profiles for a long time it would seem that they are not working as well as they used to. So although we will be using profiles they will not be our point of entry.
What we have decided is to use the rating provided by
https://splitsecondratings.blogspot.fr/
We use the top three rated as a way in and then look at profiles, pace, trainer form at track, HRB ratings and speed ratings from Geegeez Gold.
Our first bet this week is
16.15 Sandown COGRY
The horse has had its jumping problems but drops in class here as well as racing in a smaller field and hopefully this will lessen the pressure up on his jumping
Profile
Class 3 races : 11
Soft or Heavy ground: 5 wins from12 runs
1 to 11 runners: 6 wins from 9 runs (probably as less pressure on his jumping) compare this to 0 wins from 14 runs in fields of 12 runners+
RH track: 1
February: 113
Pace of race
Using Geegeez Gold it would seem that this sort of race at this track suits horses that lead or race prominently. I feel that Pete the Feat will go off in front but hopefully COGRY will be race close up to this pace as he has in the past.
Trainer
The trainer has a 23% SR at this track in the last year and a 38% win and place strike rate
HRB rating - 3rd rated
Geegeez Gold - speed rating - not in first 3
We have no bets at all this week hence the lack of posts - we have also be doing a review of our methods and although we have both been fans of profiles for a long time it would seem that they are not working as well as they used to. So although we will be using profiles they will not be our point of entry.
What we have decided is to use the rating provided by
https://splitsecondratings.blogspot.fr/
We use the top three rated as a way in and then look at profiles, pace, trainer form at track, HRB ratings and speed ratings from Geegeez Gold.
Our first bet this week is
16.15 Sandown COGRY
The horse has had its jumping problems but drops in class here as well as racing in a smaller field and hopefully this will lessen the pressure up on his jumping
Profile
Class 3 races : 11
Soft or Heavy ground: 5 wins from12 runs
1 to 11 runners: 6 wins from 9 runs (probably as less pressure on his jumping) compare this to 0 wins from 14 runs in fields of 12 runners+
RH track: 1
February: 113
Pace of race
Using Geegeez Gold it would seem that this sort of race at this track suits horses that lead or race prominently. I feel that Pete the Feat will go off in front but hopefully COGRY will be race close up to this pace as he has in the past.
Trainer
The trainer has a 23% SR at this track in the last year and a 38% win and place strike rate
HRB rating - 3rd rated
Geegeez Gold - speed rating - not in first 3
Sunday, February 12, 2017
12th February (Update 2)
15.40 Sedgefield TRIPTICO
This former decent chaser is racing in a Class 5 event today and if he retains a semblance of his former ability he must take all the beating here. He did show that he retained some of that ability on not he first run for the yard and we hope that he comes on for that run and does not bounce.
When racing on heavy ground: 214
When racing in Class5 and below: 31
2 of his 3 wins have come in February and March
2 of his 3 wins wins have come when racing 16 to 60 days after last race.
Let's have an each way bet at 7/1 with Bet365
This former decent chaser is racing in a Class 5 event today and if he retains a semblance of his former ability he must take all the beating here. He did show that he retained some of that ability on not he first run for the yard and we hope that he comes on for that run and does not bounce.
When racing on heavy ground: 214
When racing in Class5 and below: 31
2 of his 3 wins have come in February and March
2 of his 3 wins wins have come when racing 16 to 60 days after last race.
Let's have an each way bet at 7/1 with Bet365
12th February (Update1)
LOUGHALDER ran well for a long way yesterday and David feels that like he said yesterday that if we see the horse running in a Class 5 handicap in the next few weeks then he should be backed. The less said the better about the other selection as it ran no sort of race.
We are going to have losing runs backing the price range of selections that we feel offer value but one winner can make a huge difference when they are priced at 14/1 or higher. We are not going to change our approach as we feel that our methodology is sound and a winner is just around the corner.
Today again we have some long priced selections again.
15.20 Exeter The Veterans Chase
HARRY TOPPER
This horse was once touted for the Gold Cup and has been running in far better races than this, in fact the last time he ran belowListed company was in 2013.
I feel that this drop in grade and return to this track should give us a good run for our money.
When racing at Exeter: 11,
When racing in Class 2 races and below: 111151
He has won 4 from 6 when racing at 2m
All wins have come in fields of 15 runners or less
He has won 4 from 7 on RH tracks.
Let's have an each way bet at 12/1 with Ladbrokes
BUYWISE
What am I doing putting this horse up again, well I have been waiting for it to return to a RH track which I thought would never happen so here we go again. I do feel that this step up in trip may be what is needed or it is just that I am grasping at straws.
When racing on a RH track: 11117
When racing in February: 11
The horse has won the only time it was returned to the track within 15 days.
Let's have an each way bet at 12/1 with Corals
14.50 Exeter REVE DE SIVOLA
The horse has yet to race below a Graded races over hurdles and this represents a huge drop in class and although he is now 12 he does retain some ability. I hope that he manages to get to the front today as BALLYMALIN also like to run from the front and I presume we may soon know our fate but at the price he is he is worth putting up as a selection.
The horse has won 4 from 8 on a RH track
The horse is clearly at its best on soft or heavy ground
The horse has won 3 from 8 when racing off a mark of 141 to 150
When racing in February: 1
Let's have an each way bet at 20/1 with BET365
We are going to have losing runs backing the price range of selections that we feel offer value but one winner can make a huge difference when they are priced at 14/1 or higher. We are not going to change our approach as we feel that our methodology is sound and a winner is just around the corner.
Today again we have some long priced selections again.
15.20 Exeter The Veterans Chase
HARRY TOPPER
This horse was once touted for the Gold Cup and has been running in far better races than this, in fact the last time he ran belowListed company was in 2013.
I feel that this drop in grade and return to this track should give us a good run for our money.
When racing at Exeter: 11,
When racing in Class 2 races and below: 111151
He has won 4 from 6 when racing at 2m
All wins have come in fields of 15 runners or less
He has won 4 from 7 on RH tracks.
Let's have an each way bet at 12/1 with Ladbrokes
BUYWISE
What am I doing putting this horse up again, well I have been waiting for it to return to a RH track which I thought would never happen so here we go again. I do feel that this step up in trip may be what is needed or it is just that I am grasping at straws.
When racing on a RH track: 11117
When racing in February: 11
The horse has won the only time it was returned to the track within 15 days.
Let's have an each way bet at 12/1 with Corals
14.50 Exeter REVE DE SIVOLA
The horse has yet to race below a Graded races over hurdles and this represents a huge drop in class and although he is now 12 he does retain some ability. I hope that he manages to get to the front today as BALLYMALIN also like to run from the front and I presume we may soon know our fate but at the price he is he is worth putting up as a selection.
The horse has won 4 from 8 on a RH track
The horse is clearly at its best on soft or heavy ground
The horse has won 3 from 8 when racing off a mark of 141 to 150
When racing in February: 1
Let's have an each way bet at 20/1 with BET365
Friday, February 10, 2017
11th February 2017 (update 1)
David has two horses for us today and both are longer odds hopefully they run as well as RUSSE BLANC and GABREY CHEVERTIN.
This is our 1st update as we are still looking at another couple of races. If we have anything our second update will be later this morning
14.20 Uttoxeter LOUGHALDER
The reasons behind picking this horse are two-fold.
1. For some bizarre reason he does seem to run well on his 5th start of the season. His record since going chasing on this start reads: 3111. Last year he was pulled up on his two previous starts and won at 16/1 next time out and he follows the same pattern this year as he has been pulled up on his last two starts.
2. His record at this track In handicap chase races reads: 121
The horse has won 5 from11 when racing in fields of 8 to 11 runners and Charlie Poste has 7 wins from 28 rides.
He will handle the ground conditions and he usually comegood at around this time of year
It may be that he is regressing but if he was agressively ridden ad could jump off in front I would feel that he was trying today. If it is not his day today we will be keeping an eye on him especially if dropped back to a Class 5 chase. However at today's odds and his record on his 5th start and at this track he is worth an investment.
Let's have an each way bet on the horse at 25/1 with BetVictor.
16.35 Uttoxeter CALCULATED RISK
The horse went close at Ffos Las under similar conditions and I expect a good run from him today especially as the trainer does seem to be in form (unlike a lot of this field)
He clearly handles this ground having won 2 from 6 starts
The horse has won 2 from 7 when racing at 2m4f
The horse has dropped to a really low mark and does seem to come good at this time of year as well as the fact that he goes well on track that are slightly undulating or undulating.
Also Lizzie Kelly comes here for this ride after two rides at Warwick.
Let's have an each way bet at 10/1 with BetVictor
This is our 1st update as we are still looking at another couple of races. If we have anything our second update will be later this morning
14.20 Uttoxeter LOUGHALDER
The reasons behind picking this horse are two-fold.
1. For some bizarre reason he does seem to run well on his 5th start of the season. His record since going chasing on this start reads: 3111. Last year he was pulled up on his two previous starts and won at 16/1 next time out and he follows the same pattern this year as he has been pulled up on his last two starts.
2. His record at this track In handicap chase races reads: 121
The horse has won 5 from11 when racing in fields of 8 to 11 runners and Charlie Poste has 7 wins from 28 rides.
He will handle the ground conditions and he usually comegood at around this time of year
It may be that he is regressing but if he was agressively ridden ad could jump off in front I would feel that he was trying today. If it is not his day today we will be keeping an eye on him especially if dropped back to a Class 5 chase. However at today's odds and his record on his 5th start and at this track he is worth an investment.
Let's have an each way bet on the horse at 25/1 with BetVictor.
16.35 Uttoxeter CALCULATED RISK
The horse went close at Ffos Las under similar conditions and I expect a good run from him today especially as the trainer does seem to be in form (unlike a lot of this field)
He clearly handles this ground having won 2 from 6 starts
The horse has won 2 from 7 when racing at 2m4f
The horse has dropped to a really low mark and does seem to come good at this time of year as well as the fact that he goes well on track that are slightly undulating or undulating.
Also Lizzie Kelly comes here for this ride after two rides at Warwick.
Let's have an each way bet at 10/1 with BetVictor
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